...Victor Hugo, said, ''There is one thing stronger than all the armies in the world: and that is an idea whose time has come.'
I wonder how others are perceiving this upheaval in Africa and the middle east since the fall of Tunisia's previous government - it seems to me that once the Tunis and Egyptian conflicts were widely made know [now through all sorts of means, including social Media] the world under oppressive regimes began to catch "the Idea" - and what of the religious components of these oppressive regimes? Seems to me there were some of these that were religious only in name, and that the man or men in charge were just military big shots...what country will be next?
There was some coverage on Thursday with NPR live interviewing a man in a rebel camp in Libya who when asked what did he think the world should do for them he said, "The US should intervene there now...not wait like they did In Tunisia and Egypt.." I thought, with some alarm, but if we did so only weeks afterward they would start crying for us to go home...seems to me, many of these countries needed a new idea BEFORE the people in power there took hold...
I wonder how others are perceiving this upheaval in Africa and the middle east since the fall of Tunisia's previous government - it seems to me that once the Tunis and Egyptian conflicts were widely made know [now through all sorts of means, including social Media] the world under oppressive regimes began to catch "the Idea" - and what of the religious components of these oppressive regimes? Seems to me there were some of these that were religious only in name, and that the man or men in charge were just military big shots...what country will be next?
There was some coverage on Thursday with NPR live interviewing a man in a rebel camp in Libya who when asked what did he think the world should do for them he said, "The US should intervene there now...not wait like they did In Tunisia and Egypt.." I thought, with some alarm, but if we did so only weeks afterward they would start crying for us to go home...seems to me, many of these countries needed a new idea BEFORE the people in power there took hold...
Comments
As a practical matter, it seems to me that it is too often true that societies fracture along tribal boundaries. And it is at this schism that conflicts start. I think it is also true that the West has propped up a lot of educated despots in the Mideast because they are better disposed to trading oil and ideas with the West than are the typical members of society. Democracies in these countries could be bad for commerce.
Regime change in Iraq, for example traded a fairly western-oriented despot for a broader based form of government that turns out to be more repressive in certain areas such as religion. For example, all the Christians are being driven out of Iraq. Ironically, for all its repressive qualities the Saddam regime seems to have been better at guaranteeing religious freedom than its successor. Sometimes rule by a minority can be more permissive than rule by majority.
On a recent NPR show they interviewed a fellow who wrote two books on the topic of how to get popular non-violent uprisings to work. He had studied Ghandi's success and was advocating methods for peaceful change. Evidently the methods used in Tunisia and Egypt were informed by these ideas. (Wish I could remember his name, but I was driving at the time...) Success in one nation was studied on-line by groups in the next.
My take is that while the uprising in Libya may be motivated by instability elsewhere- it appears to be less a non-violent uprising than a revolution. I think regardless of form the US should stay out. I can think of no case in which "regime change" carried out by the US for the purpose of improving the order of things in a foreign state truly succeeded in doing so. With such a track record it's probably better if the US doesn't help too much.